The melt-up finally cracked. Tech got taken apart (XLK -5.5%, QQQ -4.2%), the S&P slipped 1.5%, and VIX woke up hard, +25% to 18.8. Energy was the one green spot at +4.7%. After three straight weeks of the tape squeezing my shorts, the selloff flipped the script.

Good week for the book. All three shorts recovered as the names I am short rolled over. CSCO is back to green (+13%) with the stock sitting 16% below my strike, and COIN and HPE both clawed back to about -18% from much deeper holes. Nothing hit a stop, and all three force-close July 31, so I am holding the full book into that. The account is back around +4% and comfortably ahead of the S&P. This is exactly why the rules matter: last week I was tempted to cut the losers, and holding through the drawdown is what let the recovery happen.

On new ideas I took one and passed on one. The model handed me a CNC pre-earnings call and an SMCI pre-earnings put, both flagged Tier 1, but the sizing math told the real story. CNC came with a 30% win rate and a Half-Kelly of 1%, which is the model telling me not to bother, plus an IV-crush warning, so I passed. SMCI was the opposite: a genuine edge, the priced move is roughly 24% versus the 7% I need to break even. But the model wanted 23% of the account on it, and Half-Kelly said 7%, so I cut it to a single contract, about 6%. Small, defined risk, and I exit before the earnings print. Right-sizing the good idea and skipping the bad one is the entire job.